Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Girl on the Train‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 14 – 16, 2016.
This weekend, The Accountant opens in 3,332 theaters, Kevin Hart: What Now plays in 2,500 locations, and Max Steel debuts in 2,034 theaters.
#1 – The Accountant
Coming in first this weekend should be The Accountant, a new crime-drama from director Gavin O’Connor (Warrior). It stars Ben Affleck as a person with a form of autism who works as an accountant for some of the world’s most dangerous people. The supporting cast is full of recognizable names like Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Bernthal. That ensemble certainly gives it a boost in profile, particularly the presence of Affleck who has re-established himself as an A-lister following the commercial performances of Argo and Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice. In addition, adult-orientated projects tend to do well this time of year. Affleck can attest to that with Gone Girl under his belt, which was a huge hit a couple of years ago.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like The Accountant will be able to match those numbers. The early reviews for the film have been mixed-to-negative, which doesn’t help the already low buzz surrounding it. Unlike other films this fall, The Accountant was never seen as much of an Oscar contender, which ultimately hurts its appeal. The box office is in need of a hit, but it appears as if this one will come up short in the end. Projections have it pegged for just $16 million over the opening weekend, which is an unremarkable figure for a movie with this cast.
#2 – Kevin Hart: What Now?
Our choice for the second spot is the new standup movie Kevin Hart: What Now? which of course stars famous comedian Kevin Hart. This is his third concert film, following Laugh at My Pain and Let Me Explain. The latter of those two grossed $32.2 million domestically, showing that there is indeed an audience for these projects. It also helps immensely that Hart has become a reliable box office draw with his feature films, as he’s headlined comedies such as Ride Along and Central Intelligence, which both had successful runs. Hart is one of the biggest stars in the world right now and his fan base only continues to grow.
If the marketplace was more crowded with higher profile movies, What Now? might have had a struggle. However, since business has been relatively slow for the past few weeks, there’s an opportunity there for it to become a minor hit. Estimates indicate it could make around $13.5 million over its first three days, which would be an improvement over Let Me Explain‘s opening weekend. It may not be a crossover smash, but What Now? should do fine for itself.
#3 – The Girl on the Train
Look for last week’s champ, The Girl on the Train (read our review), to fall to third in its second weekend. The film has a pretty soft opening weekend at $24.5 million, which was the lower end of expectations. Its prospects were hurt by the word-of-mouth, which did not paint the adaptation of the best-selling novel in a positive light. Though comparisons to Gone Girl were aplenty during the marketing campaign, the quality of Girl on the Train couldn’t get up to that level. It’s not really a must-see, and shouldn’t have very strong legs as its run continues.
#4 – Deepwater Horizon
Our pick for fourth is Deepwater Horizon (read our review), which made $11.5 million in its second week – good enough for third place. Though the drama received positive reviews upon its release, it couldn’t really connect with audiences to parlay the response into healthy box office numbers. With interest in it low, business should continue to slip.
#5 – The Magnificent Seven
Rounding out the top five should be The Magnificent Seven (read our review). The Western remake was never the bona fide blockbuster that some thought it could have been this season, but it’s been a reliable moneymaker throughout its run, earning $78.9 million to date domestically. It will most likely hang around for at least another week, taking advantage of the positive response and being a fun option for general audiences.
Last Week’s Recap
Next Week: Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Ouija: Origin of Evil, and more!!